Weather office is looking to provide localised forecasts for monsoon showers, which would help farmers to use their discretion in selecting seeds and using irrigation facility to improve crop production With monsoonround the corner, the government is implementing certain precautionary measures in order to prevent drop in food grains production due to unfavourable weather conditions. As a result, India’s weather office will issue localised forecasts for monsoon showers during 2010. This will help farmers to be aware about the arrival of monsoon and plan accordingly to improve crop productivity by up to 8%.
Through this endeavour, farmers will get to know in advance about the arrival of monsoon in a particular place and also the expected number of days of rainfall in a particular area. “This would to a large extent prevent farmers from witnessing losses due to flood or drought, which cause immense crop wastage,” says Abhijit Basu, director of Shiva Mills, a small-sized food grain supplier and exporter in Kolkata.
Earlier, forecasts provided by weather office used to be vague as it would cover a huge area, which surely does not benefit farmers. As a result, they would be indecisive about replanting crops in case of both low or excessive rainfall. “Every year farmers are at the mercy of heavy monsoon showers, which sometimes wash away fertilisers, insecticides and pesticides that are used to enhance crop productivity. Therefore, even though production costs are high, yield of crops remains low,” says Ajay Sinha, director of Imperial Foods, a mid-sized food grain export in Gurgaon, Haryana.
 Benefits of localised weather forecasts
It has been estimated that farm productivity would surge by 7-8% if accurate weather forecasts are provided by the weather office. This will help farmers to make correct decision to utilise suitable seeds and calculate appropriate time for irrigation.
A new model will be utilised to predict rainfall in a district for 2 weeks instead of providing farmers with 5-7 day forecasts, which was done in 2009. It is expected that the new forecasts will be available from the first week of June 2010. This will help farmers to gain knowledge about the weather forecasts during June-September period, when crops such as rice, pulses and soya beans are cultivated.
The droughts last year followed by heavy rainfall had affected crop productivity. As a result, there was low availability of food grains, thereby leading to high food prices. However, with advance knowledge about climatic conditions, farmers would be prepared for early or late monsoon showers. In case there is low rainfall this year, farmers would plant crops that require limited water supply and utilise methods like drip irrigation where less water is used. In the case of heavy rainfall, farmers would build dams in order to prevent rivers from overflowing and entering the field. Therefore food crops will be prevented from being damaged.
The weather forecasts will be extended for 30 days in order to check its effectiveness and impact on farmers. In a bid to further improve the weather forecasting, high-resolution satellite data and latest equipment will be utilised by the meteorology office. The new model will function on a trial basis and the response will help weather office to decide whether to utilise it in the coming years.
It is expected that this year there would be normal rainfall. As a result, crops would not be damaged due to droughts as was the case last year. However, some experts are predicting floods in some parts of the country due to the La Nina phenomenon. If floods take place in India, there are high chances of crops being damaged; thereby affecting crop productivity and overall profit margins of farmers would also be at stake.
Sabrina Mitchell |
